The California earthquakes are on their way again. I was able to “predict” the last big earthquake in our area, and am about to do it again. Yes, I expected the San Simeon/Paso Robles earthquake of 2003, but didn’t expect it so close. I did give a window of time when it would hit, and was right. You can tell by the placement of stress along our plates what is going on and how soon. What does that mean?
Last time, I saw earthquakes building up through the state. Bear in mind that earthquakes below 4 are really not that big a deal (in the relative earthquake world), and below 5 they kind of shake things up but are not very notable. However, even these quakes from 3.5 and above tend to allow movement of the ground and release pressure at one point. When they do this, the pressure has to go somewhere.
Faults are pretty much a line. If you lose something in one place, it needs to go down the line. Although some of the faults are not in the same direction, it still indicates there is stress movement happening in the plates. No, I am not a scientist, nor am I trained in Earthquakology. Well, I guess if I make it up, I can say I am trained in it. I am simply observant, and like dark chocolate.
Keep in mind that the bigger earthquakes are usually found in the Western Pacific. We don’t have the real deadly ones and tidal waves that other parts of the world have. We are so fortunate. But keeping this in mind, the smaller earthquakes are relatively important. Here are the earthquakes as they led up to our local quake:
Jan 22, Offshore Colima, Mexico, Mag 7.6
Even though this was not in california, it was a substantial quake off the west coast.
Jan 25, Keene, CA, Mag 4.7
No, this was not a major quake, but 4.7 is enough to cause damage if it is centered near population. Keene is east of Bakersfield. Not many people know that Tehachapi was home of several big quakes a long time ago. As a matter of fact, towns were destroyed by earthquake, flood, and fire. There is a lot of info in the museum in Tehachapi.
Feb 22, Big Bear City, CA, Mag 5.2
Southeast of Victorville and south of Barstow – between there and Palm Springs.
March 11, 29 Palms Base, CA, Mag 4.6
This is east of the last earthquake, showing a concentration in the desert area. This released a lot of stress in the area, having all of these in the same area.
May 24, Brawley, CA, Mag 4.0
Although this is on the smaller side, this one is significant, which you will see later. Brawley is down near the border of Mexico, north of Mexicali.
May 25, Santa Rosa, CA, Mag 4.2
The next day, this one was pivotal. It is the first one north of our area. This shows a different area of stress relief. That means movement on both ends of the area influenced by the San Andreas fault.
May 26, Seven Trees, CA, Mag 3.8
Again, 3 days in a row. South of Santa Rosa, centered near the bay, it is obvious that stress was being relieved in the area.
May 26, Muir Beach, CA, Mag 3.4
Again, a smaller quake, but the same day as Seven Trees, and south. The bay area is apparently being shaken at that point.
August 15, Humboldt Hill, CA, Mag 5.3
After quite a stretch of time, we got another quake. This one was way up the coast, but can you remember the warnings of a tidal wave that day? They cleared some of the beaches around here. This was still at the right angle in line with all the other quakes. If you mark a map with all the other quakes, you will see that this one was pretty much in line with the others.
Sept 5, Piedmont, CA, Mag 4.9
A couple weeks later, we get hit in the bay area again. The concentration of quakes in this area are ominous at this point. This really caught my attention, after seeing the concentration in the south.
Sept 11, Mexicali, BC, Mexico, Mag 3.7
Again, Mexico is still in line with our stresses, and just south of the one in Brawley.
Sept. 13, Simi Valley, CA, Mag 3.4
Near the Ventura area, working back up the coast. This is not along the San Andreas, but still indicative of stress movement.
Oct. 7, Imperial Beach, CA, Mag 3.6
Back down the coast, this area is west of Mexicali and Brawley. I am starting to see the pattern at this point, and then wondered when we were going to have one toward the middle of the State. North and south were getting releases, that made me think the pressure was building up in the middle.
Oct. 19, Orinda, CA, Mag 3.5
The last earthquake north of us. After this, there was an ominous lull in quakes. At this point, I started to really wonder about the progression of quakes.
Let’s recap things at this point. We see that both north and south had been releasing pressure, so what about the middle? There had been a 2 month absence for June and July. Once we got through October, I started to wonder. When we got through about the middle of November, I was worrying. That is when I figured something would happen in our area by the end of the year. I anticipated about mid December, but the window was through the month. Dec 22 was the tragic date.
What about the moon? What does the moon have to do with it? The moon has an elliptical orbit. That means there are times when the moon is closer to the earth. I didn’t bother to check the placement of the moon, as I didn’t take my concerns so seriously. Guess what date the moon was closer to the earth.
Dec. 22, San Simeon, CA, Mag 6.6
Notice that this earthquake was alone. All of a sudden, the pressure gave up and it burst. No earthquakes nearby, before or after. None. What does that tell you? The pressure was due to give up, and it happened when the moon was close to the earth. Yep, you heard it here.
Are you amazed yet? That is not the goal of this post. My goal is to get you prepared for the next big one. Yep, we are going to have another, and I’m afraid it may be even bigger than the last one. Did you notice that the San Simeon quake was the biggest one in the state that year? The only one bigger was the one down at Mexico. That’s right, we got the brunt of all the pressure releases.
What’s going on now?
You can’t really say we have been getting into a cycle again. Let’s see how it is going. The pacific rim is hot again though. There have been many 7.0 or larger quakes near the Western Pacific and Asia. In fact, it has been somewhat active for large quakes. That is an indicator that the “ring of fire” is active again. It has been 5 years since the last cycle. I will be watching activity and see if I can predict the next quake window.
Scientists will tell you that it may be quite a while because in geological time we are only here for a short while. They might play it down. On the other hand, I think there is going to be something coming up in the next 5 years. If this quake we just had is an indicator, it could be sooner than that.
I just want you to keep an eye on earthquake activity. Don’t get too worked up over it, but if it keeps going, you should keep an eye on my blogs here. In the meantime, you have time to get your home ready. Remember not to turn off your gas in an earthquake if you don’t suspect a leak. That makes it hard on the gas company. They will have a lot of work, and you may keep them away from other work they have to do.
Don’t forget to have water and food ready just in case. Also keep batteries rotated so you keep a fresh supply for flashlights and radios. Yes, a radio is important. Of course now we can’t be sure we will get TV because it is all going digital and you need to have a special tuner for it. Thank goodness radio is still normal. I suggest one that gets AM as well as FM so you have your choice of entertainment or news. In a major disaster SW is good to have, but that is up to you. Don’t store them with batteries in them as they may tend to corrode.
I suggest buying gallons of water and putting a date on them so you can rotate them. How much water you save, you need to decide based on your personal usage. Just keep rotating it and keep it fresh. Then you will also want to have canned and boxed food, non-powered can opener, and some sort of cooking device like BBQ or grill. Remember to keep pasta and boxed food in a cool dark place, and check it often for bugs. Rotate it often.
I won’t get into specifics, you can get all of that on pages about disaster readiness. If you ever want to see what is going on with earthquakes and look up info after you hear about them or even get email every time one happens, you can go to:
See how earthquakes develop in time Be sure to click the button to start the animation
Here are some other useful sites:
Solar System Calculator will show you the relative position of planets, and you can check distance of the moon from earth by dates.
Be Prepared for Earthquakes with the list here. There are some other resources from here.
American Red Cross earthquake preparedness
I don’t want to get too deep into it here. I just want you to see that we can indeed see what is coming, even though they tell you earthquakes cannot be predicted. It is simply a matter of common sense. I did warn people that I was concerned about a quake locally just prior to the San Simeon/Paso Robles quake. I will not tell you that I am going to predict another one, because it may have just been coincidence. We will see next time. I may even post it here when I have an idea of the next big earthquake.
Don’t rely on this. Live each day like something could happen, because it could happen any day. People say they don’t want to live here because they couldn’t live with earthquakes. How about tornadoes, hurricanes, lightening, tennis ball sized hail, snow, freezes, mud slides, floods, and other disasters? I would rather live here with our fires and earthquakes when I know it may happen every now and then, when everyone else knows their problems are going to happen every year.
How about mosquitoes and muggy weather? I love California, and especially the Central Coast. I know there will be an earthquake here, and I believe we will survive it. Just be sure you are ready and things should work out. Let’s not be like cavemen about this whole thing.
The Opinionator
